Soccer Betting Tips: Money Management
Posted On August 5, 2022
The quest for profit doesn’t end once you’ve found the best soccer betting tips. There is still a lot to do to guarantee a constant profit. Money management is just as important as using the correct soccer betting tips.
However, in the rush to make money, most people overlook this important aspect of soccer betting. So what is money management? Let’s see it in simple terms: you are betting on two football matches. You know that one will make a profit 80% of the time and the other has a 50-50 chance of winning. You would like to put more money into the match with an 80% chance of winning, wouldn’t you? That is money management.
It’s basically managing your money to deal with risk. So logic says that on long bets you should risk less money and on bigger bets you should bet more money. This may seem like common sense to you, but it is often overlooked.
Now the next question is: How do we calculate how much to put in a team? The most common method is to use the same amount (bet level) on each selection. While this may work in the long term, in the short term you need to beware of long strings of losers from more expensive football betting tips. Four or five losers in a row can quickly deplete your bank. Therefore, it may be better to look for a different approach.
Another approach suggested by many is the Kelly criterion. However, Kelly requires that you know the probability of winning. The bet size is then determined by first converting the bid price into a probability. You then need to estimate the probability that your bet will win. The difference between the sportsbook price probability and your probability has to be positive. If it’s negative, you should drop this football forecast like a ton of bricks and move on to the next match. The bet size is then calculated using this probability difference. A larger difference would suggest a larger investment and a smaller difference would suggest a smaller investment.
Now, as you can imagine, the average person cannot estimate the probability that their football prediction will win. So this method is of little use to him. Yes, mathematicians and professionals rave about this formula, and don’t get me wrong, it’s great in theory, but fails in practice. If it fails for at least 90% of the people who try to use it, and I guess that includes you and me.
Instead, I prefer to use the average available price. Sports Books have studied the games extensively and it’s not often that they get the price wrong. So why not use this to our advantage? This makes our enemies their greatest strength, their weakness. Yes, I know surprises do happen, but if you look at sports book prices over a long period of time, you will find that if they quote a result at par, that result will happen very close to 50% of the time.
So by using this as the true probability of the outcome, we can accurately calculate how much to invest in each football pick.