The mobile OS battle isn’t over yet

Some people think that developing for platforms other than iOS and Android doesn’t make sense. Many declare all other platforms dead. For the last 3 years, I have been told that J2ME is dead. But even in 2011, globally, more J2ME-enabled devices will be sold than smartphones. People also believe that Blackberry is a dead platform, that Microsoft has zero chance of being successful on mobile devices, that no one will develop apps for Palm/HP WebOS, and that WAC is a failure even before it has had a chance to launch.

It could be dangerous to make statements like this. The industry moves extremely fast and there are many factors involved. That’s why I think the mobile OS battle will continue for some time:

1. Carriers/carriers don’t want Apple and Google to get full dominance

Carrier device teams at carriers made it clear during the talks at Mobile World Congress that they don’t want Google or Apple to completely dominate. They will continue to support Nokia with Windows Phone, RIM with Blackberry OS, Limo as carrier partnership, and WAC as cross-platform development platform.

2. Failure is not an option

For RIM, HP and Microsoft failure is not an option. The Blackberry operating system made RIM successful and this is what led HP to purchase Palm WebOS. Microsoft is probably the company that has the most to lose. Their strategic agreement with Nokia has shown how far they are willing to go to achieve their goals. If RIM fails with the Blackberry OS, it will be lost as a smartphone maker.

3. Device manufacturers and operating system developers have a lot of money

Nokia, Samsung, RIM, HP and Microsoft have lots of cash to execute their mobile OS strategy. They may not get as many app developers to adopt their platform as Apple or Google and may fail in the long run. However, it does mean that they can spend huge amounts of money on marketing, pay developers for app development, and get big brands and services like Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare, Google, etc. build for your platform. They will not give up in the next 2-3 years.

4. Consumers still want to choose

There is still demand for different solutions from consumers. The mobile phone is not only a fashion statement (people want phones with a different look), but there is also a demand for different screen sizes, input mechanisms, and shapes. A great example is Blackberry, which has continued to be very successful with business users and teenagers thanks to its keyboard and excellent messaging services.

5. Money is not everything

Having said that many of the mobile operating system players have very deep pockets, money is definitely not everything. Supposedly, Nokia spent as much money on research and development for Symbian and Qt as Apple spent on research and development. Despite this, they failed. At the same time, Palm WebOS, which is considered one of the most advanced smartphone platforms, was developed by a small team within Palm and with distribution from HP could be successful.

What will you bet on for the future?

Having said that the battle will continue, there is no doubt who dominates at the moment. iOS and Android are currently the preferred platforms. Other platforms are prioritized, based on promotion agreements with device manufacturers and operators. I think there are huge opportunities for differentiation and distribution in embracing the full mobile ecosystem.

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