Three Yankees under the radar in the 2018 season

Much of the talk around the Yankees this spring has centered on the big names: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez. There has also been a lot of buzz about the top Yankees prospects, Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Billy McKinney, and the list goes on.

FanGraphs estimates that the Yankees will win 95 games in 2018, good for second place in the majors behind the Houston Astros.

Obviously, there is a fair amount of luck in a 162-game season. Still, being good on paper is a good starting point.

Reaching 95 wins means that a lot of little things have to go well too. For example, three Yankees in particular aren’t making many headlines, but they could play a pivotal role in 2018.

First is Sonny Gray. The 28-year-old former Oakland A player is entering his first full season with the Yankees. Gray finished third in the Cy Young voting in 2015. For several seasons in Oakland, Gray was the ace. After a dismal 2016 in which Gray pitched just 117 innings, he rebounded in 2017, pitched 162.1 innings and posted a 3.55 ERA.

Although New York is a much bigger market than Oakland, Gray no longer needs to deal with the pressure of being the ace. He will start the season as pitcher number 3, behind Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. As a very good No. 3 starter, Gray should benefit from easier matchups when opposing teams throw their aces against the best Yankees tandem.

Currently FanGraphs (depth charts) predicts that Gray will post a 3.3 WAR in 185 innings pitched. This is a reasonable estimate, and it wouldn’t be too surprising if Gray surpassed this number.

Second on the list is CC Sabathia.

During the offseason, CC Sabathia gave up a 1-year, $ 10 million contract. Initially, Sabathia contemplated retiring due to persistent pain in his right knee. He underwent end-of-season surgery in July 2014. CC underwent surgery again in October 2016 and was on the 10-day disabled list last August due to a swollen right knee.

Sabathia still managed to win 14 games in 2017, in addition to racking up 1.9 fWARs, while posting a modest 3.69 ERA. 2018 will probably be the last season of CC. Fangraphs (depth charts) predicts a 1.6 fWAR for Sabathia this season.

A healthy Sabathia could win 10-12 games for the Yankees this season. Having Sabathia in the starting rotation gives the Yankees the versatility to keep Chad Green in the bullpen again in 2018 for one more year of experience. Green may be in the running for the CC incumbent position in 2019.

If Sabathia can land on that right knee without discomfort every 5 games, he will go a long way toward the Yankees’ playoff hopes.

Third on this list, and possibly the Yankee receiving the least recognition, is Aaron Hicks.

2017 was Hicks’ most productive offensive season so far in the majors. Despite only playing 88 games, Hicks set personal records for home runs (15), runs (54) and RBIs (52). Additionally, Hicks’ on-base percentage (.372) soared 91 points over his 2016 total.

Hicks posted 3.3 fWARs in his 88 games, finishing 13th among AL outfielders and 5th among center fielders. If you set Hicks’ fWAR / game to 162 complete games, he would have a 6.1 WAR. This would place him in third place among outfielders in the American League in 2017. At a more modest fWAR / game adjustment of 134 games (the fewest games played by the only person ahead who is not named Trout), he would have posted a WAR of over 5.

This post would put Hicks slightly ahead of Justin Upton, as well as the likes of George Springer and Lorenzo Cain. I’m not claiming that Hicks will live up to those numbers for a full season, but the potential is there.

Hicks could possibly hit 25-30 home runs, score 75 RBIs and score 80 or 90 runs in the bottom half of this deep Yankees lineup.

If Gray, Sabathia and Hicks can quietly put in the numbers that they are capable of, it would be a big step forward for the Yankees to win the number 28.

Hopefully no one else finds out about them until it’s too late.

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