Asteroid Impacts: Mankind’s Risk Management of Possible Extinction

Okay, my comments here today are not to scare anyone, but to consider asteroids from a risk management perspective. You see, not so long ago, a concerned citizen and now a distant acquaintance contacted our online think tank about the almost unthinkable idea of ​​a large asteroid crashing into Earth and wiping out the human race. Yes, it is a morbid thought, and he promises me that he is really serious about this subject and that he has not smoked anything in years.

Now, after considering the accumulated knowledge on this subject, I have been fortunate to find, along with all the Hollywood movies of the end of the world, some books on the subject, some Discovery Channel programs, several research articles and a astronomy couple. classes along the way – decided to pick up on the topic. In the course of just under a week, I have read no less than 50 research articles on the subject from all of the best-known astronomers dedicated to this area of ​​study.

My acquaintance tells me that it comes from a business risk management standpoint after having run many companies, and it also comes from a strategic thinking standpoint that has studied war games all his life, and asks me to consider the ramifications of this problem from there and I stand by my review until I have carefully considered it; in fact, I can safely say yes. So, here is my assessment and the official position of our group of experts;

It seems to me that it would be wise to backtrack on any immediate mandatory effort to kill a comet or large asteroid that may be heading for Earth right now. Similarly, the concept of funding $ 50 billion each year to put a spacecraft, strike crew, with the necessary amount of nuclear weapons, as my acquaintance suggests, is simply not currently feasible. In the future it could be, but we live in the present period, not in the future. In 2-3 decades, we may have better materials, better space vehicles, and a better ability to manipulate gravity; currently not.

There are also several reasons for this risk assessment. First, an extremely large asteroid, one that could cause all life to become extinct on this planet, would be a massive space rock; we just don’t currently have the firepower to knock it down, deflect it, or get it out of it. the way. An estimate would be that it would take 2,000 nuclear bombs to do this, which, as my acquaintance claims, it would take about 4,000 large Delta rockets to reach space.

Second, there are not so many large asteroids that we know of that are safe on a collision course towards Earth. There are many smaller potentials to practice on itself, and perhaps that is a current option.

Third, we do not have an accurate census of the threat, more studies are needed and we need to know more information, and that information must be more precise, currently the margin of error in our data on the size of objects is estimated at 100%, which means that if an ECA (Earth-crossing asteroid) is 50 meters in diameter, it could very well be 100 meters, which is frankly not good enough data for risk assessment. More work is needed and should be funded to obtain accurate data.

Fourth, we have no idea about the consistency, the composition of any of these space rocks that have been found and discovered and are already part of the NEO (Near Earth Object) or NEA (Near Earth Asteroid), just we’re guessing based on reflectivity, spectrometry, radiometry, and other readings, and this still only tells us about the surface of such objects. We have an idea that some of these asteroids and comets have a lot of macro and microporosity, which helps us if one hits Earth at the right angle to enter the atmosphere and not go back into space.

Fifth, due to the fact that the probability of such an event occurring in the next 100 years is a low percentage, we must wait until we have better technology to do something about it, while funding practice missions to asteroids and various strategies to divert, destroy or divert them (D3). What we learn will confirm what we are dealing with. Sun Tzu – Know your enemy well and know yourself well. We know that we currently don’t have the political will or the technology, and we know very little about these space rocks, although that is changing.

Sixth, a semi-large asteroid that we could shoot down or D3 using all of our current nuclear firepower is unpredictable, and we have no idea if we could see it in time, or if it would surely affect us, as our data is inaccurate, and we know. So while it could kill 100 million or even 500 million people on impact or after, the human race would still carry on.

So in closing, we don’t have the ability to remove the BIG ONE at this point, a smaller one would not completely remove us, and luckily we have time on our hands. Therefore, we must use that time in a convenient and careful way. We need to fund a complete and accurate census of all asteroids and comets cataloged by;

1. Size,

2. Speed,

3. Orbit or period,

4. Transmission or cluster (if applicable),

5. Estimated composition and density,

At the same time, we need to work on better spacecraft materials, better equipment, more firepower, and delivery systems. What;

1. Collection of samples by all means,

2. Carbon nano-tube, graphene composite construction,

3. Advanced radar, spectrometry, telescope, radiometry: all kinds of systems,

4. Advanced space propulsion systems (all types need funding, prototypes and testing).

5. Defensive energy systems, including: laser, nuclear, vibratory and gravity manipulation technologies,

Along the way, as this strategy progresses, it makes sense to accelerate research, prototypes, and take the risks necessary to develop a robust strategy and have the ability to eliminate any medium to large-sized space rock threats. We must maintain the will to deal with this ever-present threat, and not simply dismiss it as something we can’t do anything about, or hope will never happen.

Why? Because the dinosaurs are no longer with us, they did not have a planetary defense system. Humans are smart enough to solve this problem and deal with this inevitable future challenge because it’s not if, but when, and right now, we don’t have enough information for a solid risk assessment; therefore, it is wise to be prudent in this matter. . This is the official online Think Tank position when it comes to saving the human race from the extinction of a comet or asteroid.